Pankkien pelastus lisää painetta Espanjassa

VIDEO: Hallitus myöntää vihdoin ongelmat, mutta tuleeko paketti liian myöhään, kysyy Morningstarin espanjalainen analyytikko.

Holly Cook 18.06.2012
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Morningstarin Madridissa toimiva analyytikko ja päätoimittaja Fernando Luque kertoo tällä videolla, millaisia seurauksia EU:n tekemällä Espanjan pankkisektorin pelastusoperaatiolla voi olla. Luque pohtii tuleeko EU:n apu liian myöhään. Hän muistuttaa, että moni olisi toivonut rajua pankkien taseiden saneerausta jo kolme vuotta sitten.

Luque uskoo, että tavalla tai toisella EU:n pelastusoperaatio tulee johtamaan Espanjassa tiukempaan budjettikuriin, velan lisääntymiseen ja maan talouspoliittisen suvereniteetin heikentymiseen.

Haastattelijana on Holly Cook, Morningstarin Britannian sivuston päätoimittaja.

Holly Cook: The latest development in the eurozone debt debacle was the recent news of a EUR 100 billion bailout of Spain’s troubled banks. I'm joined by Fernando Luque from Morningstar Spain to give us the initial reaction on the ground from Madrid.

Fernando, great to have you with us. So, tell me what's your assessment of this latest news? 

Fernando Luque: Well, I have to admit that I have been surprised by the urgency of the decision, but I think that there are good news and bad news attached to this bailout. The good news is that finally the Spanish government is recognizing the problem of the banking sector or at least part of the banking sector, because it's important to say that not all the Spanish banks have problems, only 30%, according to the IMF, need more capital.

Not good news, at least from my point of view, is that we are closer to the big solution to the eurozone debt and that means that the European Central Bank will definitely at the end act more aggressively on the bond market buying directly Spanish bonds.

The bad news is that at the end of this bailout, will mean, in my opinion, more debt for Spain and more pressure on the Spanish bonds.

Many people have the impression that we should have done this bailout three years ago, we have lost a lot of time and we still don't know if EUR 100 billion will be sufficient to save the financial sector.

Cook: So, how have the markets responded to this?

Luque: We can't say that the bailout has been a relief for the bond market, and don't forget that that was also the objective of the bailout. In fact, our 10-year bond rate is reaching its record high, so the response from the bond market has not been very positive.

In the stock market, the initial reaction, it was a little surprising considering that we still don't know many of the details of this bailout. We don't know, for example, how much we will pay for it. We don't know the maturity of these loans, and more importantly, we don't know the conditions attached to these loans. Because one thing is to say that the money will be used exclusively to save the banking sector. That is the official message. And another very different thing is to say that the loan will not affect the public debt. Of course it will affect the public debt because what we know certainly is that the government is the ultimate [entity] responsible in paying back these loans.

Cook: And so, what's next for the eurozone?

Luque: Now, clearly the focus now is, I think, on the Greek elections, obviously, because independently of the results of this election, the Greek problem will not be solved in the short-term. The Greeks don't want to leave the euro, but at the same time they don't want to accept the euro group's condition.

Another danger is a possible contagion to Italy. And regarding Spain, the risk is that the bank bailout turns into a government bailout like the one we have seen in Greece, in Ireland and in Portugal, with we have to admit very little success and very negative consequences forcing the European Central Bank to implement more aggressive measures, but also forcing some governments, and specifically Spain, to adopt stronger fiscal and stronger banking integration at the European level. That means losing some of the sovereignty. That will be the political price to pay to save the euro.

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Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

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