International markets—outlook for the second half

Companies with strong cash flows and high returns on capital are best poised to generate relatively stronger returns, even in a more difficult environment

Invesco Aim, 29.07.2009
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International markets experienced an explosive rally in the second quarter of 2009, as signs began to emerge that government economic stimulus packages may be stabilising the global economy. The MSCI EAFE Index gained 25.43% in the period — the sharpest quarterly gain since the 1980s.

However, we remain cautious about the outlook for the second half of the year, as there is still much uncertainty about the ultimate success of the stimulus efforts. For the long-term, our outlook is more favourable. We believe that US investors are, for the most part, still underexposed to international markets, especially emerging markets. Even though flows have improved somewhat, they started from a base of extreme underexposure, in our opinion.

Looking back at the rally
On a

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