Alennamme öljyn hintaennustettamme

Öljyn hinta on nyt alle monien investointien vaatiman tason, mutta ylitarjonta tulee uskoaksemme pitämään öljyn hintaa painuksissa pidempään kuin aiemmin arvioitu.

Stephen Simko, CFA 18.09.2015

Morningstarin energiasektorin analyytikot ovat laskeneet ennustettaan öljyn hinnan pitkän aikavälin kehityksestä. Ennuste on nyt 70 dollaria (Brent) ja 64 fdollaria (WTI). Raportin on kirjoittanut Stephen Simko, CFA.

Although we continue to believe that crude oil prices are well below the levels required to incentivise sufficient investment to meet demand beyond 2017, we are reducing our long-term price outlook by $5 per barrel to $70 Brent and $64 WTI to reflect bearish developments in recent quarters in the outlook for low-cost supply and industrywide cost deflation.

While $5 represents a relatively small adjustment to our long-term oil price assumption, we are also adjusting our near-term activity and pricing forecasts to reflect our belief that industry oversupply is making it very likely that crude markets will not approach any semblance of normalcy until 2017. Taken together, these changes have a meaningful impact on a handful of our energy sector fair value estimates, particularly firms that currently employ large amounts of leverage. We are beginning to publish new fair value estimates today, and all companies will be live two weeks from today.

Two key developments underpin our decision to adjust our long-term pricing outlook downward. First, cost-advantaged resources have continued growing in recent quarters, thanks to ongoing productivity improvements across U.S. tight oil plays as well sanctions relief that will result from the Iranian nuclear deal. Longer term, this makes it likely that low-cost oil will continue to crowd out more marginal projects that were being sanctioned prior to oil prices collapsing.

Further, our originally anticipated point of global supply and demand coming into balance has continued to get pushed further into the future throughout 2015. This, in turn, has led to a collapse in near-term investment that has increased the magnitude of cost deflation and has considerably weakened the currencies of many commodity-exporting countries. The result is lowered breaking-even levels for both offshore and oil sands projects, which we expect will be the resources setting the industry’s marginal cost once crude markets have rebalanced.

While the vicious sell-off of energy stocks has created a handful of compelling opportunities for long-term investors, the industry hasn’t faced a downturn of this magnitude since the Eighties. Tremendous uncertainty exists as to how commodity prices will trend over the next several quarters.

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Stephen Simko, CFA  Stephen Simko, CFA, is a senior stock analyst on the Technology Team.

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