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UPM näyttää hieman yliarvostetulta

Nostamme arviotamme UPM:n käyvästä arvosta 12 euroon, mutta osake on selvästi sitäkin kalliimpi.

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Morningstarin analyytikko Todd Wenning, CFA, kirjoittaa arviossaan, että Morningstar nostaa näkemystään UPM:n osakkeen käyvästä arvosta 12 euroon. Pääosin syynä on ajan kuluminen, mikä tuo tulevat kassavirrat ajassa lähemmäksi. Osakkeen päätöskurssi oli 15,90 euroa.

After reviewing UPM-Kymmene's fourth-quarter and full-year results, we are increasing our fair value estimate to EUR 12 per share from EUR 11 primarily because of the time value of money. Our economic moat rating of none remains intact, as we do not believe UPM possesses a durable low-cost production advantage across its businesses. We were pleased with these results, particularly the improved balance sheet, which included a reduction of net debt/EBITDA to 1.9 times from 3.0 times in the second quarter of 2013. Given the cyclicality of UPM's business and the secular headwinds in the developed market paper business, we think lower leverage is prudent. 

Compared with the prior-year fourth quarter, sales declined 2.2% but EBITDA margins improved 130 basis points to 13% as a result of significant cost savings that more than offset the adverse impact from lower prices across most paper grades. Weak paper prices remains a headwind for UPM and other paper producers, and we think the company's November announcement that it will reduce European publication paper capacity by 800,000 tons in 2015 was a wise but overdue move, as magazine and newsprint paper grades have been the hardest hit as a result of rapid digital substitution. Ultimately, we believe the majority of the cost savings from UPM's restructuring efforts will be passed along to paper consumers in North America and Europe rather than shareholders. In the longer term, we don't think UPM's paper businesses will return to the profitability levels they achieved before the financial crisis. 

We're pleased to see UPM provide more clarity on its dividend policy, which going forward will amount to 30%-40% of operating cash flow per share. The board also raised the annual payout 17% to EUR 0.70 per share, the first increase since 2011. 

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Morningstar Equity Analysts  Morningstar stock and fund analysts cover 2,000 mutual funds, 2,100 equities, and 300 exchange-traded funds.

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