Googlen osakkeessa hieman nousun varaa

Morningstar ennustaa yhtiön jatkavan henkilökunnan lisäämistä, mutta liikevaihto kasvaa vielä nopeammin.

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Viimeisin pörssin päätöskurssi: 534,85 USD
Morningstarin näkemys käyvästä arvosta: 600 USD
Kilpailuasema: vahva (wide moat)

Googlen (GOOG) tulosta analysoi Morningstarin analyytikko Rick Summer:

Google announced fourth-quarter results that were modestly ahead of our forecast for revenue and earnings and exited 2014 continuing to invest heavily in its employee base (through salary and stock compensation), data center capacity, real estate, and general research and development. We are sticking with our $600 fair value estimate and consider the shares modestly undervalued as of the earnings call. Our wide moat rating is unchanged.

Revenue grew 10.5% versus 2014 to $18.1 billion, although foreign currency had a negative impact of approximately 3.4%, excluding the contribution of the company's hedging program. Management called out particular strength in its mobile and programmatic advertising businesses, although it shared very little in the way of metrics for either segment. Google sites (which includes company-owned and -managed websites such as Google Search and YouTube) continue to be the engine, growing 18% versus 2014 excluding traffic acquisition costs. Even as Google's business matures, we expect the company to benefit as the digital advertising sector grows in the double digits over the next five years, according to our estimates.

Operating margins showed slight improvement versus the prior year, rising 100 basis points to 24.3%. The firm continues to invest heavily in compensation and head count, as the employee count has grown by nearly 6,000 over the past year, or 12%. Management also addressed an increase in compensation expense (for example, research and development expense grew 33%) caused by a one-time bonus payment, increased head count, and a reclassification of stock-based compensation.

Eventually, we expect growth in head count (and related expenses) to lag revenue growth, leading to higher operating margins. Presently, however, we expect 2015 to be another year of investment, and we are more focused on Google's growth and competitive positioning for purposes of our investment thesis and valuation. On these metrics, we continue to have a positive view and believe the stock is attractive at these levels

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Rick Summer, CFA, CPA  Rick Summer, CFA, CPA, is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

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