Energiaosakkeissa oston paikkoja

Sektorin arvostustaso on laskenut noin 20 prosenttia alle analyytikkojemme laskeman mielekkään arvon. Schlumberger on analyytikojemme suosikki.

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Osakemarkkinoiden nopea lasku on tehnyt erityisesti energiasektorista kiinnostavan ostokohteen. Morningstarin analyytikkojen seuraamat energiaosakkeet ovat painuneet jo noin 20 prosentin aliarvostukseen suhteessa näille yhtiöille laskemiimme käypiin arvioihin.

Seuraavat Morningstarin analyytikoiden seuraamat energiaosakkeet ovat menettäneet markkina-arvoaan tavalla, joka on tehnyt niistä harkitsemisen arvoisia (näillä osakkeilla on viisi tähteä mikä merkitsee että niiden osakkeiden markkinahinta on huomattavasti alle analyytikoidemme arvioiman ns. käyvän arvon):

Apache (USA)
markkina-arvo 27,9 mrd USD, P/E 13,5
markkina-arvo 77,2 mrd GBP, P/E 53,8
Cenovus (Kanada)
markkina-arvo 20,0 mrd CAD, P/E 17,0
Chesapeake (USA)
markkina-arvo 13,7 mrd USD, P/E 28,0
SandRidge (USA),
markkina-arvo 2,2 mrd USD, P/E (neg)
Schlumberger (USA),
markkina-arvo 122,6 mrd USD, P/E 18,5
Southwestern Energy (USA),
markkina-arvo 11,4 mrd USD, P/E 15,5

Näistä yhtiöistä Schlumberger kuuluu parhaiden sijoitusideoiden "Best Ideas" -listallemme. Alla tiivistelmä viimeisimmästä Schlumberger-analyysistämme englanniksi. Analyysin on kirjoittanut Robert Bellinski, CFA (17.10.2014):

Analyst Note

Schlumberger’s third-quarter earnings didn’t reflect the drop in oil prices over the past few months--revenue growth was strong and margins expanded, leading to a $0.03 earnings beat versus our estimate. We continue to believe that Schlumberger’s wide moat is safe even if oil stays at current levels. We see greater threat to our $145 fair value estimate the longer that oil stays near $80/bbl. We are not changing it at this time, but we are closely monitoring producers’ 2015 capital budgets to gauge whether a cut will be appropriate.

Revenue growth in North America was robust, while international activity varied by location. Sequential revenue in North America was up 9% as the firm continued to benefit from higher stage counts on unconventional wells, as well as recent acquisitions' artificial lift. International revenue growth was 3% versus the second quarter, with Latin America leading at 10% sequential growth. Project delays in Russia, as producers exercised caution in the wake of sanctions, held back growth in the Europe/CIS/Africa region. Unrest in Kurdistan caused a slowdown in Iraq that kept the Middle East and Asia segment’s revenue sequentially flat.

Margins were resilient, despite obstacles in international activity. Overall pretax operating income reached $2.8 billion for the quarter, up 7% sequentially and 12% year over year. International operating margins expanded by 55 basis points to reach nearly 25%, continuing their steady ascent from ~15% over the past five years. In North America, operating margin increased 137 bps to hit 19.4%--not the high-water mark we saw in 2011, but still an improvement. We are unsure to what degree unconventional activity might decrease in the near term. A sharp reduction in new wells would likely kill services companies’ hopes for continued recovery in pressure pumping pricing, and North American revenue growth and margins would clearly suffer. Early indications are that 2014 remains stable, but 2015 is still uncertain.

Even facing near-term headwinds, Schlumberger still sees oil supply and demand as balanced over the long term. The company acknowledged the threat of lower economic growth in Europe and China cutting the global oil demand outlook, as well as OPEC’s unwillingness to support oil at $100/bbl. However, during today’s earnings call CEO Paal Kibsgaard noted he expects oil production will still need to increase 1.1 million barrels per day to meet demand in 2015 while non-OPEC international production growth has struggled to increase, and he was skeptical of the sustainability of spare production capacity from OPEC. Where production growth would come from (i.e., deep-water versus unconventional versus lower-cost production in currently unstable regions) is more dependent on where oil prices eventually settle. Fortunately, Schlumberger's unparalleled international scale provides it considerable opportunity to capitalize on any of these outcomes, and consequently the firm remains our favorite pick among the oilfield services sector.

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Artikkelissa mainitut sijoitukset

Sijoituskohteen nimiHintaMuutos (%)Morningstar rating
APA Corp32,05 USD-0,03
BP PLC525,30 GBX-0,06
Cenovus Energy Inc29,10 CAD0,14
SLB48,98 USD-1,21
Southwestern Energy Co7,59 USD2,71

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