Euroalueen koroilla ei ole kiire nousta

Miten sijoittajan tulisi ennakoida Euroopan keskuspankin rahapolitiikkaa?

Jose Garcia Zarate 06.10.2010

Sisarsivustollamme Morningstar.co.uk on julkaistu hiljattain lukuisia artikkeleita korkosijoittamisesta. Tämä englanninkielinen artikkeli analysoi Euroopan taloustilannetta ja pohtii, miten se tulee vaikuttamaan Euroopan keskuspankin rahapolitiikkaan ja korkoihin. Kirjoittaja Jose Garcia-Zarate on Euroopan etf-analyytikko Morningstarilla.

In our previous article, Managing Interest Rate Risk with ETFs, published last month, we outlined how investors could use fixed income ETFs to alter the duration of fixed income holdings in their investment portfolios in response to changes, whether realised or expected, on monetary policy settings. This calls for close monitoring of economic events and a good understanding of how these would ultimately drive policy decisions. Today we would like to provide you with an overview of the Eurozone’s current economic fundamentals in order to help you make informed decisions on what duration shifts might help reduce risk in your bond portfolio.

The Eurozone Economy
The Eurozone economy has rebounded from the 2009 depths of the economic recession, posting four consecutive quarters of positive growth out to the second quarter of 2010. However, the recovery has been neither broad-based (e.g. there is a growing gap between the export-oriented northern economies and the private-demand-dependant southern) nor is it well-rooted given a global backdrop still filled with uncertainty. Besides, there are concerns that retrenchment in public expenditure programmes (i.e. austerity in the southern states) imposed at the behest of Germany on its Eurozone peers in exchange for Berlin’s support for the Eurozone Stabilisation Fund may leave these economies without essential support at a time when the private sector is not yet in a position to take a leading role. The unexpected -1.2% q/q drop in Irish GDP in the second quarter is seen by some as the first quantifiable example of the negative effects of withdrawing public support too soon.

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Jose Garcia Zarate  Jose Garcia Zarate on Morningstarin etf-analyytikko.

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