TeliaSoneran osake lähellä käypää arvoa

Vuoden 2014 tulokset eivät yllättäneet. Yhtiön kulut pysyivät hyvin kurissa.

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TeliaSoneran vuoden 2014 tulos on pitkälti Morningstarin ennusteen mukainen. Pidämme ennallaan näkemyksemme TeliaSoneran mielekkäästä arvostuksesta (50 SEK; osake 52 SEK 28.1.).

Kilpailuetu: kapea (narrow moat)
Osakkeen hinnanmäärityksen epävarmuus: korkea
Osakkeenomistajien etu: ajettu heikosti

Morningstarin teleanalyytikko Allan Nichols kommentoi tulosta tuoreeltaan näin:

“TeliaSonera reported full-year results that were generally in line with our expectations and we are maintaining our fair value estimate and economic moat rating. Reported revenue declined 0.8% versus our estimate of a drop of 1.1%. This year the firm benefited from currency moves as revenue in local currencies fell 1.8%. Sweden, the company's largest market, continued to grow with revenue up 0.7% for the year. We were particularly pleased to see sales increase 2.9% in the fourth quarter as wireless data growth picked up. Impressively, TeliaSonera is now carrying more 4G traffic than 3G in Sweden and its 4G network covers 99% of the population. We think these are good indicators that data growth will continue and allow the firm to increase sales further.

“We are also pleased to see continued improvement in Denmark, which has been a problem market, with revenue increasing 1.3% in local terms. If regulators approve the proposed joint venture between TeliaSonera's and Telenor's operations in the country, we would expect further improvement here. The rest of Europe saw revenue decline in local currency terms. TeliaSonera's acquisition of Tele2's operations in Norway, which is also pending regulatory approval, should help this market. However, we expect much of the rest of Europe to continue to struggle.

“In Eurasia, Nepal continues to perform well, with revenue growth of 18.9%. However, its subscriber growth slowed to just 62,000 net additions in the fourth quarter, but still added 1.2 million for the year taking its total base to 12.1 million. Nepal has been a phenomenal success story for TeliaSonera, but we think such growth rates are unlikely to continue as saturation approaches. The rest of Eurasia is struggling with many countries' economies slowing due to Russia's problems.

“The firm is doing a good job of controlling costs and its EBITDA margin was 34.9%, slightly above our estimate of 34.5%. We think the shares are fairly valued.”

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Tietoja kirjoittajasta

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  Allan C. Nichols, CFA, is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

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