Convinced that the global outlook for the world economy is not great, investors stay away of most of the TMT stocks even if a lot of them appear to be particularly cheap. After a gain of interest in late 2002, the TMT universe is again hit by adverse conditions. And the telecoms operators continue to be seen as "value trap" due to the heavy debts they have to carry and the small potential growth they can expect from their markets.
In contrast mobile operators seem able to experience substantial growth and to provide good financial returns. A lot of them are positively rated by analysts with outperform or buy recommendations. The fact is that, despite fears in late 2000 and in 2001 of a collapse of third generation services, mobile operators have been able to conduct a smooth trans
ition to those services (SMS, data, pictures, etc). The acceptance by the customers is such that WestLB Panmure thinks "dual-mode handsets should be available by year-end and are likely to become mass market during 2004".
This is a good perspective for handset providers like Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola… And also for manufacturers of the semiconductor industry who should of course get advantages of the mobile phone evolution. In January the chip industry registred a 20% increase of sale (y/y) and manufacturers should probably cross their fingers and pray for mobile phone market growth as they will hardly find other major opportunities in 2003.
It seems there is nothing much to expect this year in the PC industry, which represent almost 40% of their business. Dell Computer explained in February it sees no improvement for this market during the year. Professional customers are on the way to reduce expenses and to exploit as much as possible their capacities. And the segment of family computer is going to be hurt by the lack of confidence from consumers.
Experts see possible growth on certain niche markets like security or IT management solutions for PCs and networks but remain globally cautious.
Outlook
Like the whole economy and all other sectors, the TMT sector is under pressure since there are too many uncertainties due to the risk of war in Iraq and slowdown of economy worldwide.
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