Ostopäällikköjen indeksi ennustaa taantumat

VIDEO: Morningstarin ekonomisti esittelee lyhyesti ostopäällikköindeksin ja kertoo, milloin se toimii hyvänä ennustamisen välineenä.

Robert Johnson, CFA 09.06.2014

Bob Johnson: This week's chart is the purchasing managers' index from the Institute of Supply Management. This is an index that dates all the way back to the 1920s and '30s. It's the longest-running purchasing manager's survey.

Again, it's a survey where they ask purchasing managers about various facets of economic conditions. They're just asked "[Are conditions] better, worse, or the same?" They don't have to have a detailed number; they don't have to wait for sales to be calculated and the inventories to be counted. It's just kind of a gut feeling of where things are toward the end of the month, and it's reported on the very first day of the following month. It's a great, very timely indicator, which is why people like it so much. It's also been a great indicator at predicting the ends of recessions. It has been the number-one best indicator with the possible exception of unemployment claims for predicting when a recession has ended.

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Robert Johnson, CFA  Robert Johnson, CFA, is director of economic analysis with Morningstar.

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