Kehittyvät maat: maissa muttei tyrmättyjä

VIDEO: Goldman Sachs lopettaa BRIC-rahastonsa. Se on kenties yhden trendin loppu, mutta kehittyvien maiden tarina ei ole millään muotoa ohi.

Robert Johnson, CFA 17.11.2015


Bob Johnson: This week, it was revealed that Goldman Sachs (GS) is merging its BRICS fund--that is a fund that owns the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China--in with its more established emerging-markets funds. By the way, BRICS comprises about 50% of emerging-markets funds in general.

It's fascinating because Goldman Sachs coined the term BRICS way back in 2001 and established those economies as being the ones to watch for driving growth in the future. And for a while, they were extremely right.

If you look at the graph here from 2001-07, you can see that the BRICS stocks quintupled in that timeframe. Meanwhile, stocks in the U.S. didn't even double. Even if you took all developed markets, we didn't quite get to double. So, that shows how much the BRICS really outperformed.

But then if we look at the period after the recession from 2010-15, we see that things are exactly reversed, with the U.S. stock market more than doubling; meanwhile, emerging markets, overall, were flat, and the BRICS did even worse than that, declining by more than 15% over that timeframe.

So, what happened? Well, China began focusing more on consumption and less on exports and more on services and less on infrastructure. So, it meant they needed fewer commodities. That really hurt the companies and countries associated with commodities, particularly Brazil and Russia, which were two of the other BRICS. In addition, China's own growth rate came down dramatically from about a 10% or 12% level to something that looks more like 6% to 7%. That drop-off made that market perform worse than expected, so we had this dramatic change in performance.

So, what about the future? Emerging markets probably still need to adjust to slower growth rates in China--and more specifically, China's focus on consumption and movement away from infrastructure and commodities. However, looking longer term at all emerging markets, increased productivity, stronger population growth, as well as rising middle classes mean that emerging markets represent an important growth opportunity for the future.

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Robert Johnson, CFA  Robert Johnson, CFA, is director of economic analysis with Morningstar.